Draft analytics

Owner draft tendencies across 18 seasons, plus first-five position predictions for 2026.

2026 position landscape

2026 outlook for this 1QB / 2RB / 3WR / 1TE / FLEX league: RB scarcity still drives early boards, WR depth lets patient drafters wait, and QB/TE early only make sense for managers with a clear historical bias.

RBelite · shallow depth

Early-round RB premium remains high. True feature backs are scarce after the first couple of rounds, so RB-heavy drafters still pay up early.

WRstrong · deep depth

Wide receiver is the deepest skill pool. Alpha WRs still go early, but solid WR2/WR3 production is available later than equivalent RBs.

TEaverage · shallow depth

A short elite-TE tier, then a steep cliff. Only drafters who historically prioritize TE should spend a top-5 pick here.

QBstrong · deep depth

In this 1QB league, quarterback is deep enough to wait. Early QBs are mostly for managers who always secure a top dual-threat.

Kthin · average depth

Streaming position — almost never belongs in the first five rounds.

D/STthin · average depth

Matchup-based streaming — not an early-round asset in this format.

Review one owner at a time — behavior, history, then AI projections.

Aaron Stone

6 draft seasons · 90 picks · Round 1 lean: RB

Draft behavior

What they spend early picks on across all synced drafts.

WR50.0%

15 of first-five picks · first WR around pick 22.3

RB43.3%

13 of first-five picks · first RB around pick 8.3

QB6.7%

2 of first-five picks · first QB around pick 73.3

D/ST0.0%

0 of first-five picks

K0.0%

0 of first-five picks · first K around pick 156.7

TE0.0%

0 of first-five picks · first TE around pick 71

Values most: WRRBQB

Recent first-five history

Position sequence for the latest seasons they drafted.

SeasonR1R2R3R4R5
2026
2025
RBBijanRobinson
WRA.J.Brown
RBKyrenWilliams
RBAlvinKamara
WRDKMetcalf
2024
RBBreeceHall
WRMichaelPittman Jr.
RBRachaadWhite
WRStefonDiggs
WRCalvinRidley
2022
WRCooperKupp
RBJamesConner
WRKeenanAllen
RBTravisEtienne Jr.
WRDiontaeJohnson
2021
RBAntonioGibson
RBClydeEdwards-Helaire
WRMikeEvans
WRAdamThielen
QBDakPrescott
2020
RBDerrickHenry
RBMarkIngram II
WRJuJuSmith-Schuster
WRT.Y.Hilton
QBKylerMurray
2019
RBAlvinKamara
WRKeenanAllen
WRAdamThielen
RBPhillipLindsay
WRJarvisLandry

AI first-five predictions

Predicted opening positions for the next draft, based on behavior plus this year's position strength/depth.

Grok

Ready
R1WR
R2RB
R3WR
R4RB
R5QB

Aaron Stone's first-five history leans WR 50%, RB 43%, QB 7%. Favorite round-one target: RB. For 2026, I’m balancing that tendency against board reality — Early-round RB premium remains high. True feature backs are scarce after the first couple of rounds, so RB-heavy drafters still pay up early. Wide receiver is the deepest skill pool. Alpha WRs still go early, but solid WR2/WR3 production is available later than equivalent RBs. Predicted sequence: WR → RB → WR → RB → QB.

Claude

Ready
R1RB
R2WR
R3RB
R4RB
R5WR

Aaron is a balanced RB/WR drafter (43% RB, 50% WR in the first five) but his round-one anchor is almost always a back at an average pick of 8.3, and 2025 and 2024 both opened RB-WR-RB. With RB elite-but-shallow in 2026, the third back arrives in round four exactly as it did last season rather than getting pushed back. WR depth means he can still leave rounds 1-5 with only two receivers and backfill WR3 later.

ChatGPT

Ready
R1RB
R2WR
R3RB
R4WR
R5WR

Stone consistently opens with RB and has concentrated nearly all early picks at RB and WR. The shallow 2026 RB pool supports taking a second back early before exploiting the deeper WR class.